Distinguished LectureTrivial Mathematics but Deep Statistics: Simpson’s Paradox and Its Impact on Your LifeXiao-Li Meng, Department of Statistics, Harvard University
Few paradoxes have impacted everyday life more than Simpson’s Paradox has. Yet paradoxically, Simpson’s paradox is not even a paradox in the mathematical sense. Simple arithmetic can easily show that it is possible for a surgeon to have the highest overall success rate, and yet have the lowest success rates for each type of surgeries he performed. The fact that you may feel this phenomenon counterintuitive is precise the reason that the Simpson’s paradox has led to many erroneous conclusions and decisions that affect people’s life, particularly those from social and medical studies, where comparisons using aggregated data are routinely performed. This talk demonstrates the danger of Simpson’s paradox via a number of real-life examples, from the famous Berkeley sex bias case to measuring disparity in mental health service based on the most recently released National Latino and Asian American Study (NLAAS). No statistical background is required to understand this talk, but only some common sense and a desire to think deeply beyond formulas.
Refreshments at 3:30 PM
4:00pm–5:00pm, Thursday, September 24, 2009 in LGRT 1634
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